Package 'EpiNova'
| Title: |
Flexible Extended State-Space Epidemiological Models with Modern
Inference |
| Description: |
An extended epidemiological modelling framework that goes
beyond the classical SIR (Susceptible-Infectious-Recovered)
model. Supports SEIR
(Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious-Recovered), SEIRD
(Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious-Recovered-Deceased), SVEIRD
(Susceptible-Vaccinated-Exposed-Infectious-Recovered-Deceased),
and age-stratified compartmental models with flexible
intervention functions (spline-based, Gaussian process, or
user-defined). Inference is available via maximum likelihood or
sequential Monte Carlo (SMC, also known as particle filtering)
with no external binary dependencies. Includes a
dependency-free real-time effective reproduction number (Rt)
estimator, spatial multi-patch models with gravity-model
mobility, ensemble forecasting via Bayesian model averaging
(BMA), and proper scoring rules including CRPS (Continuous
Ranked Probability Score), coverage, and MAE (Mean Absolute
Error) for forecast evaluation. Methods follow Anderson and May
(1991, ISBN:9780198545996), Doucet, de Freitas, and Gordon
(2001) <doi:10.1007/978-1-4757-3437-9>, Cori et al. (2013)
<doi:10.1093/aje/kwt133>, and Gneiting and Raftery (2007)
<doi:10.1198/016214506000001437>. |
| Authors: |
Subir Hait [aut, cre] (ORCID: <https://orcid.org/0009-0004-9871-9677>) |
| Maintainer: |
Subir Hait <[email protected]> |
| License: |
MIT + file LICENSE |
| Version: |
0.1.0 |
| Built: |
2026-05-24 06:58:57 UTC |
| Source: |
https://github.com/causalfragility-lab/epinova |
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